BrazilAutomotiveGuide_2022

Janeiro/January 2022 | AutoData | Brazil Automtive Guide 14 CONJUNTURA » BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT Central elevou a taxa básica de juros em dezembro de 7,75% para 9,25% ao ano. No início de dezembro o boletim Focus, do Banco Central, apontou que a previsão de analistas de merca- do é a de que o PIB cresça 4,7% em 2021 – o resultado final é aguardado paramarço – e apenas 0,51% em 2022, sendo que algumas instituições financeiras, como o Itaú Unibanco, apostam emvariação negativa de 0,5%. Para o IPCA a projeção é a de avançar 5% em 2022, metade do ano passado, ao custo de uma Selic que pode chegar a 11,25% ao ano. Neste contexto, os juros para financiamento de veículos devem se aproximar de 26% ao ano. “A pandemia provocou disrupção na cadeia global de produção. As commodities subiram muito, o aço disparoumais de 100%, as resinas plásticas e a borracha também encareceram. Sem falar que o dólar, cotado a R$ 4 antes da covid, encerrou novembro em R$ 5,60. Nossa indústria participa da cadeia global, então ela importa muitos componentes. O impacto é direto na veia.” Neste ano, a moeda estadunidense deverá flutuar em R$ 5,50.  customers, out of concern of further hampering hopes of recovery. In the YTD 12 month period to October of last year, the IPCA index reached 10.6% and the IGP-M in the YTD 12 month period to November of last year clocked in at 17.9% whereas the IPA, which reflects prices to industry, has increased by 20.5% in the same period. Gives this picture, the Central Bank raised the base rate of interest from 7.7% to 9.2% per year. In early December the Focus Newsletter, published by the Brazilian Central Bank, reported that market analysts are estimating that the GDP will go up by 4.7% in 2021 – the actual number will be presented in March - and will increase by 0.51% this year. To be borne in mind is that some financial institutions, such as the Itaú Unibanco, believe 2022 will see a 0.5% reduction. Concerning IPCA, the projection is for it to increase by 5% in 2022, or half the pace of 2021, on account of a Selic rate of 11.25% yearly. In this framework, interest rates for car financing should approach 26% per year. “The pandemic brought about a complete disruption in the global production chain. Commodities went up in price sharply, steel went through the roof, plastic resins and rubber got more expensive. Not to mention that the US dollar, which used to be traded at R$ 4 before the Covid, wrapped up November at R$ 5.6. Brazilian industry is a part of the global supply chain, so it imports many components. The impact comes straight to the core of the cost structure. For this year, US currency should hover around R$ 5.50.  Freeepik/whatwolf